This is the Cicada Forecast for 2023.
Periodical cicadas: No periodical cicadas in the United States, India, or Fiji are expected to emerge in 2023.
There is a chance of Brood XXII Magicicada stragglers emerging 4 years early in parts of Ohio, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Read the paper Evolution and Geographic Extent of a Surprising Northern Disjunct Population of 13-Year Cicada Brood XXII (Hemiptera: Cicadidae, Magicicada). Spurious (small, unmapped) broods of Magicicada are possible.
Protoperiodical cicadas: Emergences of protoperiodical cicadas depend on multiple factors including species, location, and cumulative rainfall. Protoperiodical species belonging to the genera Okanagana and Platypedia have years of great abundance but are not as predictable as Periodical cicadas like Magciciada. We can’t say exactly when they’ll emerge in your location.
Scientists like Tim McNary track Platypedia putnami looking for a pattern in their emergences. Certain Okanagana emerge depending on factors like proximity to other species and rainfall accumulations (read Chatfield-Taylor 2020).
Both Periodical and Protoperiodical lifecycles appear to help these cicadas avoid total consumption by above-ground predators by overwhelming them in great numbers (too many to eat them all, so some always survive).
Annual cicadas: Most cicadas appear annually, so we expect most cicadas that emerged in 2022 to emerge in 2023.
Somewhat related: Dog-day cicadas (Neotibicen) are named for the time of year when the Dog-start Sirius first appears in sky. Depending on where you are in the U.S., latitudinally speaking, Sirius should enter the pre-dawn sky between July 29th (Key West, FL) and August 15th (Bangor Maine) give or take a day.
We can expect to see Cacama, Diceroprocta, Hadoa, Megatibicen, Neocicada, Neotibicen, and Quesada in North Amercia. Europe can expect Cicada orni, Lyristes, and Many other species. Japan can expect Auritibicen, Hyalessa, and many other species.
Countries in the southern hemisphere experience cicada-friendly weather September-March, so most locations in South America, Africa, southern Asia, Australia, and New Zealand that experience cicadas are in the midst of their cicada seasons at the start of 2023. Keep an eye on the latest cicada observations on iNaturalist.
While there are highs and lows in abundance, at least some annual emerge every year. Looking at how often people in Australia search for cicadas & cicada gives us a hint at how abundant cicadas are each year. Do you see a pattern?
Google Trends searches for Cicada & Cicadas in Australia:
The future of cicadas on Earth: with each year the number of cicadas grows less and less. Cutting forests for giant warehouses, new neighborhoods, and even solar farms destroys cicada habitat. Spraying pesticides for invasive and nuisance insects eliminates cicadas as well as less desirable insects. Splitting woodland and meadows with new roads sub-divides cicada habitats and reduces their chance to meet and reproduce. If you see and hear fewer cicadas with each passing year, you know why.
