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February 5, 2017

Brood VI 17-Year Cicadas Due in Spring of 2017

Filed under: Brood VI,Magicicada,Periodical,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 1:01 am

BROOD VI

Brood VI (6) 17-year cicadas (“locusts”) will emerge in the spring of 2017. The main group will emerge in South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia. Other lesser groups should emerge in Ohio & Wisconsin. And possibly other states/locations as well.

About Brood VI:

The cicada species that will emerge are Magicicada septendecim1, Magicicada septendecula1, and possibly Magicicada cassini2. These periodical cicadas have a 17-year life cycle. The last time they emerged was 2000.

When: Generally speaking, these cicadas will begin to emerge when the soil 8″ beneath the ground reaches 64 degrees Fahrenheit 3. A nice, warm rain will often trigger a emergence. So, definitely May, but something might happen in April if we have a particularly hot spring.

Locations where they are likely to emerge:

This data comes from the Cicada Central Magicicada Database6 and other sources 5, 7.

Georgia:

Counties:

Best bet: Rabun.6

1889 document: Dade (Trenton), Elbert (Elberton), Floyd (Rome), Habersham (Turnerville), Hill (Virgil), Paulding (Brownsville), Rabun, Spalding (Experiment), White (Tesnatee). 7

North Carolina:

Counties:

Best bet: Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Wilkes6.

1889 document: Alexander (Mount Pisgah, Taylorsville), Bladen, Buncombe (Asheville), Burke (Morgantown), Cabarrus, Caldwell (Lenoir, Hickory), Catawba (Claremont, Maiden), Henderson (Westfeldt Park, Horse Shoe), Iredell, Lincoln (Denver, Lincolnton), Macon (Franklin), McDowell (Greenlee), Moore, Montgomery, Pender (Long Creek), Polk (Columbus, Saluda, Mill Spring), Rabun (Highlands), Randolph, Rutherford, Swain (Whittier), Transylvania, Union (Waxhaw), Washington, Wilkes (Moravian Falls, Wilkesboro).7

South Carolina:

Counties:

Best bet: Oconee, Pickens6.

1889 document: Oconee (Stumphouse Mountain which is near Westminster).7

Brood VI

Wisconsin:

Wisconsin seems like a sure thing as well.

Counties:

Best bet: Columbia, Dane, Rock, Sauk (Baraboo)5

1889 document (aside from those mentioned above: Burnett (Spooner), Columbia (Madison), Crawford (Towerville), Dane (Janesville), Fond du Lac (Ripon), Green Lake (Dartford), Marquette (Harrisville), Sauk (Baraboo), Sawyer (Hayward), Washburn (Shell Lake), Waushara (Auroraville). 7

Ohio

Counties:

Best bet: Hamilton (Hyde Park, Delhi, Finneytown, Green Township, Anderson). 5

1889 document: Carroll, Champaign, Columbiana, Delaware, Madison, Mahoning, Montgomery, Morrow, Pickaway, Shelby, Union.

And Maybe…

Various counties in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. More about that here.

Learn more about Brood VI:

A pair of Magicicada septendecim:
A pair of mating Magicicada septendecims found in Woodbridge Township NJ

Here’s some more stuff to get you excited about the emergence:

Watch a cicada emerge from its skin:

A whole lot of cicada nymphs:

Other than GA, NC, SC, WI, OH:

What about Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia?

The most interesting aspect of Brood VI for cicada researchers is its widespread distribution according to literature from the past. Take a look at the Brood VI map on Magicicada.org to see what I mean. See all those blue triangles? Those represent locations from the 1923 version of C.L. Marlatt’s The Periodical Cicada (United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Entomology Bulletin 71). Notice that they’re all over the United States, east of the Mississippi, and not just concentrated in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, like the recent, verified sightings which are marked with Gold & Brown symbols.

The question is: was C.L. Marlatt mistaken? Is Brood VI really as widespread as his bulletin suggests, or do these sightings represent:

  1. Stragglers from other Broods like X or V.
  2. Members of Brood XIX that just happened to emerge the same year as Brood VI.
  3. Errors
  4. A combination of two or more of these.

Or… perhaps they are (or were) totally legitimate, actual populations of Brood VI.

If you look at the data from the Cicada Central Magicicada Database and compare the County/State locations where the Literature says Brood VI is, with other broods that emerge in these County/State locations, you’ll find an argument for the possibilities mentioned above.

Brood VI Counties
Brood X really stands out.

Stragglers from other 17-year Broods:

Quoting David Marshall’s paper Periodical Cicada (Homoptera: Cicadidae) Life-Cycle Variations, the Historical Emergence Record, and the Geographic Stability of Brood Distributions: “Many of the questionable brood VI records fall within the ranges of 17-yr broods II, V, and – separated from brood VI by 1 or 4 yr.”4

It’s very likely that Brood X stragglers, arriving a very-probable four years early, might be mistaken for Brood VI. About 41% of the Brood VI records overlap with Brood X. Reports of Brood X stragglers, year after year, could add up to significant numbers, and appear to be populations of Brood VI.

Not as likely, but still possible are Brood V stragglers emerging a year late. That would account for about 20% of the overlaps.

Probability of Magicicada straggling in order most likely first: 1) 4 years early, 2) 4 years late, 3) 1 year early, 4) 1 year late. Read more about stragglers.

Co-Emergence with Brood XIX

Brood XIX cicadas have a 13-year life cycle, and Brood XIX and VI will emerge in the same year every 221 years 13 x 17 = 221).

About 9% of the Brood VI records show an overlap with Brood XIX. The last co-emergence of these broods happened in 1881. There’s a good chance in that in 1898 Brood XIX +4 year stragglers emerged along with Brood VI too.

Legitimate groups of Brood VI not in GA, NC or SC

About 20% of the Brood VI records share no overlap with other Broods (at least according to the database). These are the interesting ones (to me at least). These seem to be the most likely candidates for something unique, and not a straggler or descendant of another Brood. There seem to be about seven counties in Wisconsin that share no overlap with another Brood. Notice on the Magicicada.org Brood VI page this: “Isolated populations in WI were not confirmed in 2000, but the search was not exhaustive.” Hmmm… I have to ask.

It is possible that groups of Brood VI existed during Marlatt’s time, but they have gone extinct since the 1920s. We lost Brood XI in 1954 — extinction is highly possible.

The Jim Thorp Pennsyvalnia periodical cicadas that emerged in-sync with Brood V in 2016 are an example of a group of periodical cicadas that share the same cycle as a major brood, but differ in location, and probably lineage. There might be a few examples like this as well.

It is certain that there are populations in Wisconsin and Ohio5, so I have added those states at the top of this article. The University of Wisconsin–Madison has specimens from Wisconsin in their collection, and I’m pretty sure Gene Kritsky has specimens from the Ohio emergences.

2000 Emergence

Gene Kritsky’s must-own book Periodical Cicadas the Plague and the Puzzle (2004, Indiana Academy of Science, page 97) notes that in 2000 there were several large emergences of periodical cicadas outside of GA, NC & SC. They emerged in Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C., Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana. Note that Brood X also emerges in these areas. Has part of Brood X been accelerating to fall into the same cycle as Brood VI? Maybe.

Oklahoma

As I understand it, there may be populations in eastern Oklahoma that might exist, but no one has checked yet (or documented it). Researchers hope to check this year.5

Brood X stragglers in 2017

Last, it is important to mention that there will be plenty of legitimate Brood X stragglers emerging next year (Brood X map). These might get confused with Brood VI.

Just in case, here’s all the States/Counties mentioned by Marlatt’s documents other than GA, NC, SC, OH, WI.7

After reading the old documents, I’ve bolded the “best bets” — the ones that were more than “a few”.

Delaware: Newcastle.

District of Columbia: Several localities.

Illinois: Dewitt [Hallsville, Wapella “millions”], Douglas, Knox, McLean, Montgomery, Scott, Shelby [Strasburg “plentiful is eastern part of county”], Vermilion.

Indiana: Boone, Brown, Carroll, Grant, Johnson, Laporte [Boiling Prairie “several in the timber”], Wells.

Kentucky: Letcher.

Maryland: Carroll, Cecil, Montgomery, Prince George, Washington.

Michigan: Barry, Chippewa [Pickford “plentiful”], Genesee [Linden “plentiful”], Houghton [Jacobsville “very many”], Kent [Kent City], Macomb, Newaygo, Ogemaw, Otsego [Vauderbilt], Shiawassee, Washtenaw.

Montana: Choteau, Flathead, Gallatin, Missoula. [Probably Okanagana or Platypedia, not Magicicada]

New Jersey: Bergen [Fort Lee – Probably paved over by now], Cumberland, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex [Franklin – swarms], Morris, Passaic, Somerset [“swarms in timbered districts”].

New York: Greene, New York [Manhattan had farmland in 1889], Richmond [this is Staten Island, east half of island], Schenectady, Westchester.

Pennsylvania: Bucks [Durham – “great numbers”], Montgomery, Westmoreland.

Tennessee: Bradley, Greene, Hamilton, Jefferson, Knox, Meigs, Polk, Sullivan.

Virginia: Charlotte, Chesterfield, Fairfax, Powhatan, Prince Edward.

West Virginia: Berkeley, Hampshire, Jefferson, Mineral, Preston, Webster.


1 Teiji Sota, Satoshi Yamamoto, John R. Cooley, Kathy B.R. Hill, Chris Simon, and Jin Yoshimu. Independent divergence of 13- and 17-y life cycles among three lineages of periodical cicada lineages. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

2 Gene Kritsky Periodical Cicadas the Plague and the Puzzle (2004, Indiana Academy of Science, page 97)

3 James Edward Heath, Thermal Synchronization of Emergence in Periodical “17-year” Cicadas (Homoptera, Cicadidae, Magicicada) American Midland Naturalist, Vol. 80, No. 2. (Oct., 1968), pp. 440-448.

4 David C Marshall Periodical Cicada (Homoptera: Cicadidae) Life-Cycle Variations, the Historical Emergence Record, and the Geographic Stability of Brood Distributions. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 94(3): 386Ð399 (2001). Link to website where you can get this document.

5 Information from John Cooley of Magicicada.org, Gene Kritsky, & Roy Troutman, relayed by email.

6 Magicicada Database Query Page.

7 C.L. Marlatt, Thermal Synchronization of Emergence in Periodical “17-year” Cicadas (Homoptera, Cicadidae, Magicicada), United States. Bureau of Entomology, 1889b, (1889). Find this online in the document Some miscellaneous results of the work of the Division of Entomology, III (Archive.org) compiled by United State Division of Entomology in 1889.

* The map is based on this map from the Wikimedia Commons by Lokal_Profil. The data for the map come’s from Magicicada.org.


May 12, 2016

Cicada Straggler Alert 2016

Filed under: Magicicada,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 9:29 pm

Straggler Alert

The point of this article is that you should be on the alert for Magicicada periodical cicadas, no matter what year it is, and if you see or hear them, report them.

Stragglers, in terms of cicadas, are periodical cicadas that emerge in years prior to (precursors) or after their brood is expected to emerge. Most often, 17 year cicada stragglers emerge four years prior to their expected emergence date — but it is possible for periodical cicadas to emerge between 8 years earlier and 4 years later than expected. Read more about cicada stragglers.

This year (2016) Brood IX stragglers should emerge in southern West Virginia, western Virginia and the north-middle part of North Carolina that connects with western Virginia. See a map here.

Looking at the live map on Magicicada.org, it is obvious that most reports come from Brood V and stragglers appear to be emerging in the Brood IX & VI areas as expected — however, there are a fair number of reports in the Brood II and X areas, which is odd.

Map

  • Red: Brood V
  • Orange: Brood IX, 4 years early (most probable)
  • Yellow: Brood VI, 1 year early (probable)
  • Green: Brood II, 3 years late (rare, but possible)
  • Dark Green: Brood X, 5 years early (rare, but possible)

As stated before, it is common for periodical cicadas to emerge 4 years early, but 5 years early is rare. So why Brood X be stragglers this year? That requires a little more thought.

Now we enter the realm of conjecture…

Rick Karban in the paper How 17-year cicadas keep track of time1 demonstrated how you can get cicadas to emerge earlier than expected if you alter the seasonal cycles of their host trees. Make the tree experience two cycles in one year, the cicadas will read this as “two years have passed” and they’ll emerge a year earlier. So, in the case of Brood X stragglers, it could be that their host trees experienced weather fluctuations that caused them to do something that signaled the cicadas that 2 years had passed. Add the 4 years they would likely straggle + 1 year caused by fluctuations from the host tree, and that makes for a 5 year straggler.

The other day wethertrends360 posted this on their facebook page:

Growing Degree Days tell us why the Northeast had such an early surge in plant growth but then slowed. From late February to early April temperatures were near record warm in the Northeast with the 2nd most Growing Degree Days (GDD) in 25 years (chart/map left). This allowed plants to emerge way too early and then the freezes came!

Perhaps this early surge in plant growth, then a freeze, then growth again seemed like two years had passed to some cicadas. Perhaps.

1 How 17-year cicadas keep track of time, Richard Karban, Carrie A. Black1 and Steven A. Weinbaum, Ecology Letters (2000) 3 : 253-256.

October 11, 2015

Look/Listen for Brood IX Cicada Stragglers in 2016

Filed under: Brood IX,Magicicada,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 11:11 am

There is a high probability that Brood IX (17 Year Magicicada) stragglers will emerge in 2016. Look for them in southern West Virginia, western Virginia and north-west North Carolina:

Brood IX

M. septendecim, M. cassini, and M. septendecula are all part of this brood.

Learn more about periodical cicada stragglers.

Visit Magicicada.org’s Brood IX page for detailed information.

June 27, 2015

What are stragglers?

Filed under: FAQs,Periodical,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 1:02 pm

Periodical cicadas often emerge in years before or after they are expected to emerge. When periodical cicadas don’t emerge on schedule we call them stragglers. Typically cicadas with a 17-year lifecycle will emerge 4 years early, and cicadas with a 13-year cycle will emerge 4 years late.

Probability of Straggling. Image courtesy of Chris Simon.
This image indicates the probability of Magicicada straggler emergences. Courtesy of cicada researcher Chris Simon.

People hear the word straggler and assume it means something that lags behind, but that is a laggard. Straggler simply means something that has deviated from an expected date/time. That said, periodical cicadas that emerge early can also be called precursors.

Visit Brood Chart to see when stragglers will be most likely.

Extremely likely stragglers in the next 10 years (or so):

2017: Brood X 4 years early.
2018: Brood XXII 4 years late.
2019: Brood XXIII 4 years late.
2020: Brood XIII 4 years early.
2021: Brood XIV 4 years early.
2025: Brood I 4 years early.

June 11, 2015

Look and listen for Magicicada stragglers in 2015

Another straggler sighting, this time in Cleveland which should make it a Brood V one year straggler:

Matt Berger Brood V Stragger 2
A Brood V straggler found by Matt Berger in West Virginia. See more photos of this cicada.

The emergence of Brood XXIII is well underway in the states along the Mississippi, and Brood IV should kick off in the west as soon as it stops raining every day. These aren’t the only Magicicada periodical cicadas emerging in the U.S. this year — some stragglers will emerge as well.

A straggler is a periodical cicada that emerges before or after the rest of its brood. Typically a straggler belonging to a 17 year brood will emerge 4 years early, but they might also emerge a year early, or a year late, or even 4 years late. This probability chart, details the probability of a straggler emergence.

In 2015 you might find the following stragglers:

  • Brood XIII 17 year cicadas emerging 4 years early in OH, PA, WVA.
  • Brood V 17 year cicadas emerging 1 year early in NY, OH, PA, VA, WVA.
  • Brood XIX 13 year periodical cicadas emerging 4 years late in AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, VA
  • Brood XXII 13 year cicadas emerging a year late in LA, MS, OH, KY

Tyla MacAllister found a Brood XIX Magicicada straggler (emerged 4 years late) in Alabama!

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