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April 26, 2017

Look & listen for Brood X Stragglers

Filed under: Brood X,Magicicada,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 5:33 am

This year precursors to Brood X should emerge in limited numbers in D.C., Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York (Long Island), North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Magicicada.org has the most up-to-date map from Brood X.

Don’t panic! Yes, I’m talking to people in the afore mentioned states that do not like cicadas. Less that one percent of a Brood straggles. If you had 10,000 cicadas in your yard back in 2004, you can expect 4 or 5. 4 or 5 that are usually, quickly, eaten by birds.

Here's Johnny

In North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, where Brood VI will emerge for certain this year, Brood X is just west of Brood VI. Brood X hugs the western border of North Carolina & Tennessee, and Brood VI is just east of that.

What are stragglers, and why do they straggler

Stragglers are periodical cicadas that emerge in years before or after the brood they belong to is expected to emerge. Typically 17-year periodical cicadas emerge 4 years early (see the probability chart). While stragglers never seem to produce enough offspring to produce future generations, straggling is something periodical cicadas do (there’s a lot more to this, but I’m keeping it simple).

The weather is one thing that will trigger periodical cicadas to emerge early. An unusually hot fall, or hot and then cold and then hot spring, could add another “year” to what cicadas perceive as the procession of time, and so they “think”, “okay it’s been 17 years, time to emerge”, when it has only been 13 years.

Dr. Gene Kritsky, in this recent article, is quoted as saying “[c]limate changes are behind the premature debut”.

Brood VI compared to Brood X:
Brood X vs VI
The data comes from Magicicada.org.

May 12, 2016

Cicada Straggler Alert 2016

Filed under: Magicicada,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 9:29 pm

Straggler Alert

The point of this article is that you should be on the alert for Magicicada periodical cicadas, no matter what year it is, and if you see or hear them, report them.

Stragglers, in terms of cicadas, are periodical cicadas that emerge in years prior to (precursors) or after their brood is expected to emerge. Most often, 17 year cicada stragglers emerge four years prior to their expected emergence date — but it is possible for periodical cicadas to emerge between 8 years earlier and 4 years later than expected. Read more about cicada stragglers.

This year (2016) Brood IX stragglers should emerge in southern West Virginia, western Virginia and the north-middle part of North Carolina that connects with western Virginia. See a map here.

Looking at the live map on Magicicada.org, it is obvious that most reports come from Brood V and stragglers appear to be emerging in the Brood IX & VI areas as expected — however, there are a fair number of reports in the Brood II and X areas, which is odd.

Map

  • Red: Brood V
  • Orange: Brood IX, 4 years early (most probable)
  • Yellow: Brood VI, 1 year early (probable)
  • Green: Brood II, 3 years late (rare, but possible)
  • Dark Green: Brood X, 5 years early (rare, but possible)

As stated before, it is common for periodical cicadas to emerge 4 years early, but 5 years early is rare. So why Brood X be stragglers this year? That requires a little more thought.

Now we enter the realm of conjecture…

Rick Karban in the paper How 17-year cicadas keep track of time1 demonstrated how you can get cicadas to emerge earlier than expected if you alter the seasonal cycles of their host trees. Make the tree experience two cycles in one year, the cicadas will read this as “two years have passed” and they’ll emerge a year earlier. So, in the case of Brood X stragglers, it could be that their host trees experienced weather fluctuations that caused them to do something that signaled the cicadas that 2 years had passed. Add the 4 years they would likely straggle + 1 year caused by fluctuations from the host tree, and that makes for a 5 year straggler.

The other day wethertrends360 posted this on their facebook page:

Growing Degree Days tell us why the Northeast had such an early surge in plant growth but then slowed. From late February to early April temperatures were near record warm in the Northeast with the 2nd most Growing Degree Days (GDD) in 25 years (chart/map left). This allowed plants to emerge way too early and then the freezes came!

Perhaps this early surge in plant growth, then a freeze, then growth again seemed like two years had passed to some cicadas. Perhaps.

1 How 17-year cicadas keep track of time, Richard Karban, Carrie A. Black1 and Steven A. Weinbaum, Ecology Letters (2000) 3 : 253-256.

October 11, 2015

Look/Listen for Brood IX Cicada Stragglers in 2016

Filed under: Brood IX,Magicicada,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 11:11 am

There is a high probability that Brood IX (17 Year Magicicada) stragglers will emerge in 2016. Look for them in southern West Virginia, western Virginia and north-west North Carolina:

Brood IX

M. septendecim, M. cassini, and M. septendecula are all part of this brood.

Learn more about periodical cicada stragglers.

Visit Magicicada.org’s Brood IX page for detailed information.

June 27, 2015

What are stragglers?

Filed under: FAQs,Periodical,Periodical Stragglers — Dan @ 1:02 pm

Periodical cicadas often emerge in years before or after they are expected to emerge. When periodical cicadas don’t emerge on schedule we call them stragglers. Typically cicadas with a 17-year lifecycle will emerge 4 years early, and cicadas with a 13-year cycle will emerge 4 years late.

Probability of Straggling. Image courtesy of Chris Simon.
This image indicates the probability of Magicicada straggler emergences. Courtesy of cicada researcher Chris Simon.

People hear the word straggler and assume it means something that lags behind, but that is a laggard. Straggler simply means something that has deviated from an expected date/time. That said, periodical cicadas that emerge early can also be called precursors.

Visit Brood Chart to see when stragglers will be most likely.

Extremely likely stragglers in the next 10 years (or so):

2017: Brood X 4 years early.
2018: Brood XXII 4 years late.
2019: Brood XXIII 4 years late.
2020: Brood XIII 4 years early.
2021: Brood XIV 4 years early.
2025: Brood I 4 years early.

June 11, 2015

Look and listen for Magicicada stragglers in 2015

Another straggler sighting, this time in Cleveland which should make it a Brood V one year straggler:

Matt Berger Brood V Stragger 2
A Brood V straggler found by Matt Berger in West Virginia. See more photos of this cicada.

The emergence of Brood XXIII is well underway in the states along the Mississippi, and Brood IV should kick off in the west as soon as it stops raining every day. These aren’t the only Magicicada periodical cicadas emerging in the U.S. this year — some stragglers will emerge as well.

A straggler is a periodical cicada that emerges before or after the rest of its brood. Typically a straggler belonging to a 17 year brood will emerge 4 years early, but they might also emerge a year early, or a year late, or even 4 years late. This probability chart, details the probability of a straggler emergence.

In 2015 you might find the following stragglers:

  • Brood XIII 17 year cicadas emerging 4 years early in OH, PA, WVA.
  • Brood V 17 year cicadas emerging 1 year early in NY, OH, PA, VA, WVA.
  • Brood XIX 13 year periodical cicadas emerging 4 years late in AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, VA
  • Brood XXII 13 year cicadas emerging a year late in LA, MS, OH, KY

Tyla MacAllister found a Brood XIX Magicicada straggler (emerged 4 years late) in Alabama!

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